The Gaza crisis, which erupted on October 7, 2023, has prompted major and middle powers around the world to intensify diplomatic efforts and bilateral negotiations in pursuit of a ceasefire and an end to the violence against Palestinians. Several regional and global actors have leveraged multilateral platforms, such as the United Nations, to seek a resolution to the conflict. However, the international community, the global powers, and Middle East regional powers have been criticized for not undertaking the needed pressure to terminate the violence, relying primarily on diplomatic talks and increased humanitarian aid to Palestinian civilians. Yielding little effective results towards addressing the root causes behind the conflict was another obstacle that the international community faced.
China, alongside other external powers, has been supportive of the international efforts made to contain the war, aiming to end the violence and prevent further escalation. Through its membership in the United Nations Security Council and its bilateral relations with regional powers in the Middle East, China has been engaged multilaterally and bilaterally with the disputing parties. Additionally, China hosted the relevant Palestinian factions in Beijing, resulting in the declaration of a unity deal between Hamas and Fatah (Anqi, 2024). This marks a heightened Chinese interest in engaging in this historical issue, raising questions about whether China could offer a distinct resolution to this complicated issue that the region has been struggling to resolve for decades.
Meanwhile, the credibility of Western powers, particularly the United States, has been widely scrutinized for its unwavering support of Israeli actions, which were perceived as an act of genocide against the Palestinian civilians (Shahid & Saba. 2024). The US diplomatic backing to Israel throughout the crisis has consequently emphasized the Chinese engagement in the issue as more logical to the region. Yet, in this context, China has not necessarily exhibited a transformative stance on the issue; it remained within its foreign policy and political comfort zone. The Chinese position leaves observers with many questions on what the longer-term contribution China may bring to resolve the Palestine-Israel issue.
The Relevance of the Beijing Declaration
In July 2024, China was credited for mediating a reconciliation deal between Palestinian factions. During negotiations in Beijing, leaders from Fatah and Hamas signed an agreement to establish an interim national reconciliation government for both the West Bank and Gaza. The Chinese brokered meeting included representatives of 14 other Palestinian factions who expressed commitment to work all together in pursuit of a unified Palestine (Berg, Tessa, & Raffi, 2024). The Chinese diplomatic mediation has attracted global attention, as the internal rift between Hamas and Fatah, dating back to 2007, has long been a major obstacle to restoring Palestinian control over occupied territories by Israel for years.
Achieving an internally unified Palestine was a significant step towards restoring control over the lost Gaza. From the ceasefire till the reconstruction of Gaza, the agreement of the Palestinian factions is to be sustained, given that they expressed a desire for unity. The "Beijing Declaration" is perceived accordingly not only as an internal cornerstone to stability in Palestine but also as a diplomatic achievement to exhibit a greater influence in the Middle East. The Palestinian issue has been recently projected as an ignored Middle Eastern issue within the American global role as a global governor. Consequently, the Chinese reconciliation effort was seen as an opportunistic impetus in a very advantageous timing, serving China's new image projection as a responsible power, addressing Palestine's internal obstacles, and compensating for the declining American engagement in the Middle East.
The reconciliation path between Fatah and Hamas has been attempted through several declarations in the past few years. The Cairo Declaration (2005), the Doha Agreement (2012), the Algiers Agreement (2022), and many other unification efforts and handshakes have been reached. However, these initiatives failed to yield lasting success (Barron, Scobell, & Gallagher, 2024). The failure to maintain the previously reached agreements raises skepticism and concerns about the potential of what the Beijing Declaration (2024) may bring to the table. To what extent Fatah and Hamas calculations are revised and rethought of through Beijing Declaration so that China, as the broker of the deal, may play a wider and consistent role in achieving the internal unification of Palestine and consequently the resolution of Palestine-Israel conflict.
Beijing's foreign relations have been driven by non-interventionist principles throughout its modern history. In this sense, the recent escalation in the Palestinian issue has prompted China to review its stance and partially detach itself from the non-alignment policy towards the Middle East. Although Beijing has been historically supportive of the Palestinian cause and the Palestinian people's right to their land and peace, adopting a proactive role independent from the old political neutrality will allow for addressing the complicated prospects surrounding China's involvement profile in Palestine.
Possible Optimal Scenarios
The expansion of China's Global Security Initiative from the Saudi-Iranian peace deal to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict pre-requisites a further modification and sacrifice of Beijing's Middle East diplomatic approach. The Gaza War introduces new variables core to China's ambition to play a greater stabilizing role in the Middle East. The Saudi-Iranian deal was a promising moment in Chinese diplomacy in the Middle East. The expansion of this mediation diplomacy will be a game-changing effort, increasing China's credibility and relevance to the current affairs of the region.
To achieve this, China must develop a deep, independent understanding of the conflict's intricacies and frame a distinct course of action. Beijing's positively established engagement with both Palestine and Israel may boost its credibility to mediate between them. China may foster the commitment and abidance of the disputing parties and their allies with international measures through international platforms such as the United Nations Security Council and International courts (El Shehaby, Rahman, & Ghafar, 2024). Thus, China may reinforce its image as a global responsible power in enhancing the practice of multilateralism.
One factor that could contribute to the success of the Beijing Declaration is the expressed internal will for unity among Fatah, Hamas, and other Palestinian factions, despite the ongoing Gaza crisis. This fragile opportunity for negotiation, although narrow, is what China can capitalize on to preserve the peace deal despite the volatile and complex internal dynamics within Palestine.
In the context of the Saudi-Iran deal, both Riyadh and Tehran chose to prioritize the establishment of a new phase in their bilateral and regional relations rather than resolving all outstanding issues at once. A similar approach could be applied to the Palestine-Israel conflict, particularly as Hamas increasingly recognizes the need to complement its military resistance with political legitimacy in the pursuit of Palestinian statehood. Continued internal discord between Fatah and Hamas would only serve Israeli expansionist goals. Here, China's emerging global role may provide the balance needed to advocate for Palestine in the United Nations Security Council, countering the US veto and garnering additional support from Russia. This broader backing could help amplify Palestinian demands on the international stage and push toward long-term resolutions.
Despite being perceived by some observers as less knowledgeable actor of the region and its complexities, China's recent involvement in the region has introducted a different understanding and comprehension of potential solutions. For decades, the Arab world has been positioning the American guidance and sponsorship on the top of the external guarantors list. There has been little willingness to explore alternative approaches to regional conflict resolution in the past decade.
However, with China's increasing engagement with regional powers—now extending beyond its need for energy security to include major development projects—Beijing has emerged as a more logical partner for Middle Eastern countries, especially those focused on national development. As a result, China is now viewed as a sustainable diplomatic broker for the region. On the one hand, the foreseeable future of the Middle East and the urgency for the reconstruction of several countries would guarantee Chinese involvement in the decades to come. The mutual interests driving China-Middle East relations ensure that China's mediation efforts will be respected and sustained.
Moreover, China is keen to intensify its international role in maintaining the peace agreements it has mediated, reinforcing its image as a global stabilizer and peace builder. This commitment could help Palestinian factions overcome the critical task of setting a timeline and action plan for the Beijing Declaration. This coincided with the recent United Nations granting a chair to the Palestinian Authority (The New Arab, 2024), which may maintain a linear growth in the Palestinian issue.
The broader context associated with the Beijing Declaration may also contribute to sustaining the implementation of the deal. While twelve previous agreements and declarations between Palestinian factions have failed, this is the first time a deal has been fully sponsored by a global power outside the region. This diplomatic upgrade gives the Palestinian conflicting parties the sense and realization that their historical resistance and efforts are heard, recognized, and valued. Beijing's associated significance, accordingly, to the Palestinian issue would increase the Palestinian likelihood to exhibit a longer commitment.
Maintaining the internal Palestinian dialogue on the Chinese diplomatic table, regardless of the immediate outcomes, is crucial for expanding conflict resolution efforts beyond intra-Palestinian disputes to include inter-Palestinian affairs, potentially paving the way for a new approach to making peace with Israel. Although China has appeared to be supportive of the Palestinian cause and land for decades, China has an extensive experience in maintaining an equal-footed diplomatic neutrality between disputing parties. The Saudi-Irani diplomatic reproachment could not been of success without China's leverage of its trade and strategic partnerships with a parallel distance from both sides. A similar application of the Chinese leverage is feasible in the case of Palestine-Israel case if Palestinian unity is achieved in the first place and the Gaza war is ended. Then, there will be a wider room for China to endeavor another level of inter-state diplomatic mediation.
Conclusion
The Beijing Declaration, marking the 13th agreement reached between the Palestinian factions, may result in optimal scenarios. The expected possibilities are not limited to addressing the intra-Palestine issues but are extended to possibly reaching a conflict resolution between Palestine and Israel. The declaration was reached in a critical timing to restore the Palestinian power needed to enhance the overall resistance during the Gaza War. To what extent the declaration is expected to survive remains a collective effort to be made by Beijing and Palestinian factions!
References
Barron, Robert, Andrew Scobell, and Adam Gallagher. “Palestinian Factions Pledge Unity: Another Diplomatic Win for China?” United States Institute of Peace. Accessed September 25, 2024. https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/07/palestinian-factions-pledge-unity-another-diplomatic-win-china.
Berg, Tessa Wong and Raffi. “China seeks to unite Palestinian factions with unity deal,” July 23, 2024. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crgm147lzv1o.
Ghafar, Adel, El Shehaby, Hana, and Omar Rahman. “China’s Approach to Palestine and Israel: Towards a Greater Role? - Middle East Council on Global Affairs.” Middle East Council on Global Affairs, July 24, 2024. Accessed September 25, 2024. https://mecouncil.org/publication/chinas-approach-to-palestine-and-israel-towards-a-greater-role/.
United States Institute of Peace. “Palestinian Factions Pledge Unity: Another Diplomatic Win for China?,” n.d. https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/07/palestinian-factions-pledge-unity-another-diplomatic-win-china.
Shahid, Waleed, and Dylan Saba. “Why Is the US Still Backing Israeli Genocide?” Jacobin, July 20, 2024. Accessed September 25, 2024. https://jacobin.com/2024/07/gaza-genocide-biden-democrats-aipac.
The New Arab. “Palestine makes history by taking seat at UN General Assembly.” The New Arab, September 11, 2024. Accessed September 25, 2024. https://www.newarab.com/news/palestine-makes-history-taking-seat-un-general-assembly.
